The State University of Colorado, United States, reported that in 2018 a total of 3 intense hurricanes and 7 medium intensity hurricanes are expected for a total of 14 named tropical cyclones for the Atlantic and Caribbean zone.
After the start of the hurricane season in the Pacific area – May 15 – and the Atlantic-Caribbean zone, in the coming days – June 1 – the National Water Commission reported that in the next few days it will issue an official document with forecasts for this season, anticipating some details on special considerations for the Yucatan area.
In this way, the Colorado State University (CSU in English), announced that it estimated a season of slightly higher activity than the average for 2018, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE acronyms in English) of 130, higher than that registered in more than three decades for this region.
The CSU highlighted in its report that, according to its forecasting team, prospects record 63 percent probability of a major hurricane for the United States, with a long-term average of 52 percent. The same assessment states that the Caribbean will have a 52 percent chance of seeing at least one major hurricane.
In 2017, the islands of the Caribbean were affected by two major phenomena, Irma and María in September, which caused loss of life in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and Puerto Rico, and material damage estimated at $3 billion US dollars.
The assessment issued by the CSU does not detail aspects of impact for Mexico, but highlights percentages and possibilities only for the US territory. Thus, it is established that both the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and Guadalajara and the CNA will issue a forecast in the coming days.
Specialists Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, meteorologists at CSU, warn: “We anticipate that the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin will have slightly higher than average activity. It is likely that the current weak La Niña phenomenon will lead to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the coming months.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) recently released the names registered for the tropical storms of the 2018 season: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce , Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Raphael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.
In the hurricane season of 2017, the Yucatan Peninsula registered only one tropical storm that crossed the territory on August 8, “Franklin”, which entered Mexican coasts very close to Punta Terreno, Quintana Roo, with maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers. per hour.
In its course, it left to the south of Sisal, Yucatan towards the Gulf of Mexico to reach lands of the state of Veracruz where it disintegrated.
Source: Acom
